FanEx Analysis Draft
Round 1

Rules | Transactions

Draft Rounds - See below for analysis
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 1.01
 		Mike Harmon
RB LaDainian Tomlinson SD
 QB: RB: Tomlinson  WR: TE: PK:

There is absolutely no hesitation or doubt at No. 1. Don't try and out-think the room. Snag LT. Tomlinson's record-breaking season marked the first time in his career that Tomlinson led the league in either touchdowns or rushing yards, but he's ranked in the top 10 in both for six consecutive seasons (top six in rushing touchdowns each year). That shows durability, a major feat in the rough and tumble world of feature backs (LT has missed one game). 

With virtually everyone back and Coach Norv Turner there to advance Philip Rivers' game, the sky is the limit in '07.
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1.02
 Duane Cahill
RB Steven Jackson STL
 QB: RB: Jackson  WR: TE: PK:

My choice was Steven Jackson vs. Larry Johnson. I much prefer Jackson's situation with the Rams.  In the last two years, LJ has lost Willie Roaf and Will Shields on the offensive line.  The Chiefs will start either a rookie or a 34-year old career backup at QB, and their WR corps is ready for Medicare.  Neither a possible LJ holdout nor his workload were a factor, as holdouts tend to be resolved and LJ had only 21 more touches than Jackson in '06.  I have no reason to doubt that LJ will have a fine season.  However, Jackson's will be better. 

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1.03

 Pitzer | Houston
RB Frank Gore SF
 QB: RB: Gore  WR: TE: PK:

Picking behind LT and Jackson is not a great spot, but in Gore, we have a guy who is ready to be a great star. He is coming off that breakout season and the ascending 49ers will ask him to do more. He already was deceptively effective as a receiver last year, important with that point per reception, but the biggest improvement this year should be with TDs. If the 49ers improve as expected, he easily will move into double digits. He was the sixth most valuable player in this scoring format last year so a few more TDs should push him near the top. Larry Johnson has so much risk that he is a scary pick this high; Joseph Addai also would make a lot of sense, but he is a bit more of a projection because he has yet to be an every-down runner.
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1.04

 Ian Allan 
RB Reggie Bush NO
 QB: RB: Bush  WR: TE: PK:
I tried to trade out of this draft spot. I offered to swap first- and second-rounders with each of the next five guys. None were interested. Larry Johnson is clearly the best player on the board, but I think he’ll be a holdout and also see him as a significant injury risk, given the number of carries he gets. That left me going back and forth amongst a bunch of other guys. Alexander scores TDs but is an older guy who doesn’t catch many passes. Westbrook has missed an awful lot of games. I’m going with Bush, whom I see as a safe choice to catch 80-plus passes (huge in this format), put up 1,500 or 1,600 total yards and score about 12 TDs. Not a spot I wanted to be in; Bush might have been around at the end of the first round.

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1.05
 Jerome Hickerson
RB Shaun Alexander SEA
 QB: RB: Alexander  WR: TE: PK:

For me, the debate was between Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander although Joseph Addai was also a thought here. I had Johnson ranked ahead of Alexander due to reception points, but I opted for Alexander because of concern about Johnson’s contract situation. My opinion is that 5th or 6th is a great draft spot this year. LT and Jackson are consensus #1 and #2 picks this year, but the next several picks are pretty much toss ups.
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1.06

 Dolfi | Walls 
RB Larry Johnson KC
 QB: RB: LJohnson  WR: TE: PK:

Are there questions about Larry Johnson?  Damn right there are... a questionable offensive line, the loss of Trent Green, possible holdout, his risk of injury due to the high volume of carries he shoulders... and that final 'question' was what put Johnson over the top for us.  KC simply MUST re-sign him, they really have no other option in our opinion.  And they're going to feed him the ball a TON.  He's going to get great numbers even if he doesn't last the season.  And which of the other RBs really doesn't have questions this year?
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1.07

  Paul Charchian
RB Joseph Addai IND
 QB: RB: Addai  WR: TE: PK:
Normally in this draft position (middle-late first round), I begin my "Do The Opposite" draft, taking elite-level wide receivers and quarterbacks in the first three rounds. But Joseph Addai, one of my top-five runners in this scoring system, was available. This is a PPR league, and last year Addai brought in 40 receptions during the regular season and 22 more in the post season—and that was in a split-time situation.  As the sole starter, he could have 70-80 receptions in 2007.  I'll almost certainly go with Peyton Manning or a receiver next round.
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1.08

 Brian Hulett
RB Brian Westbrook PHI 
 QB: RB: Westbrook  WR: TE: PK:
Last year was the campaign when the Eagles finally leaned on "little" Brian Westbrook for the whole season, and he responded in a big way, showing no ill effects of his '05 injury.  Over the past three years Westbrook has averaged about 70 receptions per, which is huge when you get one point per reception, and he scored 11 times while having his first 1000-yard rushing total.  There's no longer any reason to think of this former 3rd-down back as anything less than a safe and productive mid first-rounder.
 
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1.09

 Emil Kadlec
RB Willie Parker PIT
 QB: RB: Parker  WR: TE: PK:
The Ninth spot isn’t my favorite drafting position this year. My sexy 1st-rounds picks this year are Reggie Bush and Joseph Addai. Obviously I’m not going to be very sexy this year. However, sexy doesn’t always convert to fantasy victories. Parker, I believe has the lowest risk of the remaining players and even though I love taking risks I am going to settle with him.

Parker ran for the third-most yards in team history and he broke the Steelers record with 16 touchdowns (13 rushing). But for all the overall production, Parker was inconsistent, especially on the road. That’s why new coach Mike Tomlin is looking to cut back on Parker’s touches, pushing some of the workload off on a bigger, complementary back. Parker could be upset by such a change, but he apparently sees the league-wide trend of teams using multiple backs to power their running game -- as well as the benefit of lightening the load for someone whose preferred playing weight is right around 210 pounds. ... Still, given Parker’s speed and big-play capabilities, we’re convinced he’ll continue to post top-10 totals even with a slightly-reduced workload.
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1.10

 Greg Kellogg  
RB Edgerrin James AZ
 QB: RB: James  WR: TE: PK:
Picking this late in the first round is always tough - do you break the run and grab the top QB or WR, or try to get one of the few remaining RBs.  I opted for the latter strategy.  I selected James he is normally very durable and should approach 380 touches for the year.  With the new coaching staff and rookie OT Levi Brown, James should rise in productivity.
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1.11

 Rito | Nazarek
RB Rudi Johnson CIN
 QB: RB: RJohnson  WR: TE: PK:
Emil mentioned a few picks ago that his pick was unsexy....Rudi is about as unsexy as a "good first round pick" can be. He has little upside, but best of all very little downside either - just solid, front-line production that you can count on week in and week out. Johnson is one of only two RBs to finish each of the last three seasons in the fantasy top 10 (some guy named LT is the other), and you can virtually assure yourself of getting over 1400 total yards and a dozen TDs. No, not many crucial receptions in this PPR format, but he is a workhorse without any real competition in CIN and is playing for a perennially high-powered offense. You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it with a risky pick - Rudi Johnson fits our needs and strategy nicely
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1.12

 TC Cannon
RB Travis Henry DEN
 QB: RB: Henry  WR: TE: PK:
There are many good reasons to like selecting 2nd tier fantasy rusher Travis Henry. First off, he can be very productive - He's proven that with the Bills and Titans.  Secondly, the Broncos want and need him to be the focus of their offense. It is that very nice combination of opportunity plus talent that makes this pick very promising  There seems very little 'gamble' in adding Henry to the roster as a RB1. He could be a top 5 RB in 2007and that is something that is difficult to say about the better remaining RBs - Portis, Maroney, McGahee, Brown.
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    Jeff Hartke
Guest Analysis Round 1
    
    The first round of the FANEX draft is completed and - in accordance with the usual style - was composed entirely of running backs.  Its easy to see that our experts are very familiar with the WCOFF scoring system, which includes one point per reception.

The number of receptions made by the 12 RBs chosen in 2006 ranged from 90 (Steven Jackson) to 13 (Travis Henry).  That extra scoring is the same as if Jackson ran for an extra 630 yards and 4 scores.

This goes a long way to explain why the fourth pick of Reggie Bush is not a huge reach. If Bush puts up number consistent with his second half, he should justify his lofty drafting position.

If Damon Huard were the likely starter for KC - or if an NFL contract were worth more than a roll of discount store 2-ply, then we would have seen Larry Johnson in either the #3 or #4 slot instead of sinking to #6. But the combination of a threat to hold out, a rookie signal caller and the deterioration of the Chiefs' offensive line puts him here.

My favorite pick of the round was Willie Parker at #9.  He answered his critics last year by carrying the load and getting the tough yards in the red zone.  As the undisputed #1 back for a run-oriented offense, Parker can be counted on for 1800 total yards, 30 receptions and 14 TDs.

I do not agree that Shaun Alexander should have been drafted fifth. He enters his eighth NFL season with a lingering foot injury, questions on the offensive line and a passing game that isn't where it used to be.  Its a stretch for me to imagine Alexander coming up to his 2004 numbers - Joseph Addai or Larry Johnson would be a much better choice here.