FanEx Analysis
Draft
Final Analysis
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Draft Rounds - See below
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Final
Analysis
| Duane
Cahill QB: Brady Orton Campbell RB: CJohnson Rice Tate FJackson Dwyer WR: Crabtree Welker Aromashodu Bryant Gonzalez Edelman LeFell TE: Gronkowski PK: Kaeding DT: Steelers Titans |
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Overall strategy: It completely changed once Ian offered me the 1.4 for 2.12 and 3.1. Once I knew I'd have two of the top four RBs on my roster, my concentration was on WRs with upside. Crabtree, Welker (with Edelman drafted as insurance), Aromashodu and Bryant all fit that category nicely. Your
best selection of the draft: Ray
Rice, after having Chris Johnson in the fold already. The worst pick or move of the entire draft: Tom Brady was a bit of a panic pick for me. In retrospect, since I knew I'd be taking three QBs anyway, the smart money was to wait longer for my first and use this pick on Percy Harvin or Donald Driver. If you had to, with whom would you switch rosters and why? I'll give a slight nod to Craig Davis over Tony Holm (maybe it's Tony's 2 stud TE theory). Despite leading off with two WRs, Davis came back with three solid rushers and a very good QB in the first six rounds. His last couple of WR picks in Chaz Schilens and Mbike Williams could really pan out. I think his lone error was in drafting only one kicker. That's a guaranteed zero at the position in week 10, and there's no fallback on Janikowski's poor weeks. =================================================================================== |
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| Matt
Pitzer QB: Manning Moore Freeman RB: Peterson Jacobs Taylor Portis FTaylor WR: VJackson Ward Houshmandzadeh Evans Cotchery Collie TE: Shiancoe Davis PK: Carpenter Rackers DT: Vikings |
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Overall
strategy: My
strategy was to target wide receivers first, believing that
the PPR scoring system and starting up to four WRs made them
the most crucial position. Things did not work out as planned
when I drew the No. 2 overall pick and pretty much had to take
Adrian Peterson. Any other pick -- from No. 3 on down -- and I
would have looked at a receiver first. Then, all of my
targeted No. 1s flew off the board before I could get Vincent
Jackson in the second round. I did spend five of eight picks
on receivers from rounds 2-9 so we'll see how that works out. Your
best selection of the draft: Probably
Peyton Manning in the third round. I know QBs are not beloved
in this league and that only four of them went in the first
four rounds. I believe, however, that taking Manning in the
third round in any draft, no matter how QBs are valued, is a
good move considering his history, reliability and
dependability. I hope I'm not cursing his 2010 season by
saying all of this. If not for bye weeks, I might not have
picked a backup QB. The worst
pick or move of the entire draft: Vincent
Jackson in Round 2. I love him as a player, but his contract
situation with the Chargers has deteriorated further than I
thought it would more quickly than I expected. Between that
and a potential suspension, he will have a hard time being on
the field enough to justify that selection. But I was (too)
desperate for a No. 1 receiver. I also had an opportunity to
take Malcom Floyd later (13th round) but passed, not believing
that having two receivers on the same team was worthwhile.
Wish I could have that one back too. If
you had to, with whom would you switch rosters and why? Mike
Nazarek's team. I like those first three picks - DeAngelo
Williams, Randy Moss and Aaron Rodgers. All were good value
choices despite being high selections. I'm not sold on Pierre
Thomas in the fourth round, but he obviously has potential to
be a great choice. Then you get another solid run of starters
- Donald Driver, Ton Gonzalez, Marion Barber, Derrick Mason.
All of them should be consistent producers for the team. Good
value with the big name and steady picks for the rest of the
lineup. =================================================================================== |
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TC
Cannon QB: Brees Sanchez RB: Jones-Drew Benson Stewart Gerhart WR: Garcon Edwards Beaston SMoss Knox Doucet JJones TE: Winslow Keller PK Bauehler DT: Packers Cowboys |
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Ian
Allan QB: Rodgers Young RB: D Williams Thomas Barber FJackson Buckhalter WR: Moss Driver Mason Chambers Gaffney TE: Gonzalez ZMiller PK: Bironas DT: 49ers Dolphins |
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STRATEGY I’m not trying to do anything out of the ordinary in these drafts. I’m just trying to pick some good players. I’m always willing to trade up or down if I feel it will make my team better. In this case, I traded down out of spot No. 4 (where I could have taken Ray Rice — an excellent player) because my stat projections indicated I’d finish slightly ahead by picking up the 2.12 and 3.01 picks. Then I traded down again because I didn’t like what was there. Overall, this team looks pretty good. Not as good as in the previous three years I’ve competed, but I’ll blame that on the 11 other guys — they did a better job of picking this year than they’ve done in the past (in particular, gobbling up all the franchise-type receivers in the second round). YOUR BEST SELECTION I don’t have any guys that I’m going to brag about. I was just taking the highest guys on my board when it was my time to pick. I’ll call Jabar Gaffney my pick with the most upside. I selected him way down at 13.04, but I think he could be very good. I believe he’ll be Denver’s No. 1 receiver. He was very good in the final two weeks of last year. PROUDEST MOMENT I made three trades early. Trading away 1.04 to pick up 2.12 and 3.01. Then a trade down a few spots. Then a trade of pick 3.03 down to the end of that round, allowing me to pick up almost a full round in rounds 4, 6, 8 and 10, I think. I think those trades will help me, but we’ll see. WORST PICK I misread the market on Fred Jackson. I didn’t select him at 10.09, thinking he’d definitely still be there at 11.04. But Matt Pitzer selected Jackson at 10.11, forcing me to give away some value to obtain him (I had already selected C.J. Spiller, and I wanted to have both of the Buffalo backs, given the no-moves format of this league). Other possible worst move: passing multiple times late in the draft on Houston’s Arian Foster, who could be very good. BEST OPPONENT I spend more time than you might think analyzing the rosters. I take my stat projections and calculate expected scoring totals for each team — and I do it three different ways. In each of those systems, MATT PITZER grades out as the best opponent, followed by TONY HOLM. So those guys should feel good about their teams. Last year, I identified Holm as the best opponent; he won it. The previous year, I identified Holm as the top opponent, and he finished 3rd behind myself and one other team. I vaguely recall I also had success in identifying a good opponent in 2007 as well, but that link seems to have now been taken down. =================================================================================== |
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| Chris
Rito QB: Rivers Garrard RB: Gore Grant Addai RWilliams Maroney Lynch WR: Colston Bowe Hester Berrian Royal McCluster TE: Daniels Boss PK: Gostkowski Graham DT: Colts |
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Overall strategy: best player available in round 1 and then maximize my overall lineup/roster, not necessarily taking the best/most valuable/highest rated player at each pick. But the main difference in strategy I undertook (as compared to most players - except TC, who obviously thought as I did) as the draft unfolded was to eschew WRs early in a PPR league. This is rather unusual, but in the FAD scoring format I believe it can work. It may be better to take 6-7 guys with explosive week-to-week potential in later rounds rather than take 3-4 guys with consistent excellence in very high rounds.... because I don't have to guess which guys will produce each week. Then the rest of your positions can get loaded up and you can get away with this at WR (and maybe even at QB) in this format. Lesson: always know your rules and then design your strategy to maximizing your success within those rules. Of course, my player evaluations (like anyone else's) may be wrong, but I like my strategy. Your
best selection of the draft: Maybe TE
Owen Daniels late in the 8th round. He was putting up stats
neck-and-neck with 4.04 pick Dallas Clark through 8 weeks
when he got hurt last year, and seems to be on the road to
full recovery by the start of hte season. Considering that I
got him at least 2-3 rounds later than most of the other
stud TEs, I may have given my team a chance to be
competitive with anyone at the TE by spendtion by spending a
much lower draft choice. I also like 17th rounder
Dexter McCluster to fit my draft strategy of explosive WRs
that could score a lot of points on any given week with just
one or two long plays The worst pick or move of the entire draft: Maybe taking Ryan Grant at 2.08. His ADP was all over the place depending on your source, so I had a hard time grading his real ADP with this drafting group. I believed that the high number of WRs drafted early this year would make the lower tier RBs more scarce and might have panicked by taking him at 2.08 when I might have got a comparable RB at 3.05. Although to be fair...I got the WR at 3.05 I would have taken at 2.08; but I could have taken Drew Brees at 2.08 instead. If
you had to, with whom would you switch rosters and why? Probably
Craig Davis. No obvious holes in his lineup with some top end
talent at nearly every position. I question some of his backups,
but we all have holes and if depth is your only obvious
hole...that is a likely good place to be. If Tony Holm gets
anything weekly from his strategic plan to wait on RBs, he
also will be tough to beat with better-than-average talent at
the other positions.
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Mike
Harmon QB: Cutler McNabb Hasselbeck RB: DJackson Forte Hightower White TJones Choice WR: Rice DeJackson Sims-Walker Manningham Floyd TE: Cooley Pettigrew PK: Crosby DT: Ravens Redskins |
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Craig
Davis QB: Schaub Flacco Bradford RB: Wells FJones R Bush MBush DBrown WR: AJohnson White Meachem Avery Thomas Schilens MWiliams TE: Z Miller Gresham PK: Janikowski DT: Chargers Panthers |
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Overall
strategy: There
was no real new found strategy this year… the basic
premise was to draft for depth and value while not
“reaching” for players too early. I don’t think I took
any major “chances” before the 10th round as
I was looking to build a solid starting corps with great
depth at each position. Your
best selection of the draft: Probably
Roddy White. In my opinion, White is going to be a top 5 WR
this year… so to get him in the middle of the second round
was a solid pick. After selecting Andre Johnson in the
middle of the first round I thought I was going to be
looking at a RB, but I simply couldn’t pass up the value I
thought White would bring. The worst
pick or move of the entire draft: Unfortunately,
it was me. I got caught up in another draft at the same time
and failed to realize I had only one defense and one kicker
and ONLY ONE PICK LEFT!!! In this format, you need to cover
your bye weeks because there are no waiver moves… and I
failed to pay enough attention at the end of the draft. If you had to, with whom would you switch rosters and why? Last year I would have traded my roster with about 5 or 6 others as I wasn’t happy with my draft about halfway through. This year I’m actually quite pleased with how my draft turned out and I’m not sure I’d trade with anyone. I do, however, like what Chris Dolfi and Tom Walls did, spreading out their talent in all areas. Granted, Brett Favre absolutely has to play because if he retires, his only other option is Ben Roethlisberger… and he’s out at least four weeks to start the season. The other roster I like is Ian Allen’s. I was a bit baffled by the selection of Jacksonville TE Zach Miller in the 19th round, consider he already had two other solid options, but maybe he knows something I don’t. Overall, I would choose either of those two rosters if I had to trade. |
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Chris
Dolfi | Tom Walls QB: Favre Roethlisberger RB: Gore Greene CWilliams Forsett Washington WR: Austin Jennings Harvin Owens Morgan JJones TE: Celek Olsen PK: Reed DT: Jets |
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Overall strategy: Tom Walls’ Take – We wanted a strong receiving corps. As has been written many times before, this league rewards quite well for receptions. We have had strong RB corps before, but that only got us so far (ie – not the Championship). We needed to get a solid corps of WRs. We also have certain rules regarding Team Defense and Kickers; get a solid top 3 D/ST, and one only, use that ‘extra’ pick on a RB/WR who will have many more chances to start for us than a second, inferior D/ST. Kickers, well kickers of course can wait till the last 2-3 rounds, since the best kicker starts for you automatically. We succeeded in getting a very deep WR corps, and somehow ended up with 5 likely #1 RBs on the team Chris Dolfi’s Take – With a whopping 1 point per reception, receivers are at a premium in this league, so we resolved to do a better job of grabbing some top receiver talent early. Obviously, RB is still a focal point as well, and we grabbed 6 of them – five of whom have a chance to be their team’s starter. When you can’t alter your roster during the year, you have to spend picks on quality backups. So where we might only grab 1 of the TE – K – D/ST varieties in a standard draft, we have to back up all those positions – with the exception of D/ST, in our minds. We know many wont agree with our strategy of just taking one top flight D and not backing them up – but with no chance of an entire defense getting hurt, and little chance of one of the league’s best not scoring well, we feel that pick can be better served grabbing an extra WR or RB. Your best selection of
the draft: Dolfi
– Going to have to agree with Tom here, Arian Foster in the 20th
round is a *STEAL*. Will Tate eventually be
the starter barring some unforeseen injury? Of
course ; but with Steve Slaton still on the mend, and Tate only
recently getting on the field for OTA’s, we get a potential
starter at RB for the cost of a cup of coffee – and not even
the expensive triple non-fat mocha-latte from Starbuck’s kind. Dolfi
– The bible said “Pride goeth before the fall”, but at the
risk of offending the almighty and fantasy football pundits,
I’ll toot our own horn on our trade - moving up a full round
from 13.08 to 12.09 with the only cost being that we have to
give up a 17th rounder for a 20th rounder.
Sure, we gave up three rounds, but it was in a part of
the draft we were only going to be looking at kickers and deep
backups – and we get the chance to backup a risky Terrell
Owens pick with another name we liked at WR, Golden Tate who
would have been gone if we waited until 13.08. The worst pick or
move of the entire draft: Dolfi
– We waited too long on thinking about a 3rd QB,
and with Favre getting older and more selfish and Roethlisberger
one drunken strip club night away from a longer suspension, we
really should have backed that position up with another
signal-caller. By the time we were looking at
a third QB, the names were so thin it would have been a wasted
pick – so we are forced to go with just two and hope both of
these guys can stay on the field. If you had to, with whom
would you switch rosters and why? Dolfi
– Of course you always like your own team, but there are
always at least one or two other teams I wouldn’t mind owning.
Sometimes it’s hard for me to pick someone who stands
above the rest, other times it’s easy. For
me, this year, it’s an easy pick – Mike
Nazarek
put together a very, very solid team with a great mix of proven
performers and risk/reward selections. It
starts at QB with a great performer in Rodgers and a nice backup
with some upside in Henne. RB is much the
same – solid up top with DeAngelo Williams and Pierre Thomas,
but backups with potential in Barber, Ward, Ringer, and even his
flyer on Westbrook. In a league that rewards
great WR play, Nazarek is set with Roy Williams being the WORST
of his six wide-outs. He’ll get excellent
numbers out of Moss and Driver and the rest of his WRs make his
WR corps the best in the league top to bottom, in my opinion.
Gonzalez/Shockey at TE, Feely/Gould at K, and Philly/NE
at D/ST are all very solid, with backups that are just as good.
Heck of a job, Mike! |
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Tony
Holm QB: Ryan Kolb Cassel RB: McCoy Bradshaw Tomlinson Sproles McGahee WR: CJohnson Marshall Britt DThomas Bess Robinson TE: Clark Gates PK: Hartley Tynes DT: Bengals |
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Overall Strategy: Dominate!
;-) My overall strategy is fairly simple and I stuck
to my FAD guns this year. In the beginning, let the
draft come to me, don't reach for a RB or a WR, whatever
happens happens and don't panic, even if I open WR-WR-WR
because that's what was there. Try and wrap up Dallas
Clark in the 4th if it makes sense, wait on QB until
everyone has one but then go after the position and try to
race to 3 QB's while there are some left, pick up 2 kickers
in rounds 16 - 18 and 2 team defenses in rounds 19 and 20
and don't be tempted by flashy defenses earlier. Trade
down if I can for value and that's about it for strategy.
Best Selection:
Personally, I like the Antonio Gates pickup in the 5th to go
along with Dallas Clark as a flex strategy when draft talent
was starting to get thin. I also like LaDainian
Tomlinson in the 10th as well as Matt Cassel in the 12th.
I think they'll both turn out to be great value.
Proudest Moment: Snatching
players from the grasp of those behind you is always fun and
helps to underscore the fact that I'm drafting well.
It seemed like I was snatching players a lot from the folks
picking after me so I guess I'm proud of that.
Worst Pick: I think I
reached for Kenny Britt in the 8th. That's pretty
early for Kenny Britt. I'm a believer and I think
he'll do well but I probably could have done better with
that selection in hindsight.
Switch: Through the draft
there were a few teams that stood out to me as always
grabbing the guys I value. Chris Rito and Mike
Harmon stood out to me while we were drafting as taking
one solid selection after another and I almost always
like what Matt Pitzer and Craig Davis do as well. Ian
Allan is one devious SOB in this draft and I have to
ackowledge his effort, I like his team too, but wonder if he
traded himself out of this contest and privately wonder what
his team would have looked like if he accepted no trades.
With all that said, from the teams I like, my humble opinion
of course, Pitzer I think started really well but faded
late, Allan did well but I'd rather see a QB3 over a TE3 on
his team, Harmon got burned by Lendale White already and his
QB's may or may not pan out. I really wish Davis had a
backup PK, better TE's and Sam Bradford as a QB3 doesn't
excite me. I'd like to see stronger TE's on Rito's
team and a QB3 over one of the RB's. I think he's a
little RB heavy for this and would have been better off with
another WR and/or QB instead of a RB but his team is still
solid. I'm going with Chris Rito this year as the team
I'd make the switch with but good drafting all!
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Jerome
Hickerson QB: EManning Palmer RB: Turner R Brown Slaton McFadden JJones Norwood WR: Fitzgerald Ochocinco Walter Massaquoi Washington TE: Witten Carlson PK: Akers Prater DT: Saints Bears |
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Greg
Kellogg QB: Stafford ASmith Leinhart RB: Charles Best Hardesty Harrison LJohnson WR: Wayne Boldin Hicks Bryant Arrelious Henderson TE: Davis Heap PK: Hanson DT: Broncos Chiefs |
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strategy: Best
available player based on Team Needs The worst pick or move of the entire draft: For me, I waited a round too long to get my first QB. Overall, Ryan Matthews in the first round edges out Chris Johnson as the first overall pick. If you had to, with whom would you switch rosters and why? Maybe Ian Allan but not so much because I like his roster better than mine. Just because Ian is ALWAYS in the race at the end of this contest so I trust his judgement. =================================================================================== |
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Mike Nazarek QB: Rodgers Henne RB: D Williams Thomas Barber Ward Ringer WR : Moss Driver Mason Holmes Burleson RWilliams TE: Gonzalez Shockey PK: Gould Feely DT: Eagles Patriots |
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strategy: I usually go RBs heavy first, but drafting in the #12 hole in a PPR system, I had to be flexible and target a RB/WR combo there, which I got. I like to make sure I grab two solid RBs, an elite WR, and chose to target a top QB earlier than I usually do and wait on a TE. Let's call it a modified STUD RB theory due to the PPR scoring rules. A little less on the RB and more on the receivers. Your best selection of the draft: Since I traded up to get him, I hope QB Aaron Rodgers sure produces elite fantasy numbers. I sacrificed positioning on three other draft picks, but feel he was worth it. I also like the RB Marion Barber pick at the end of round #7. I think if he holds up, he produces more than most think. Your proudest moment: Taking the bold route to trade up and grab QB Aaron Rodgers in the third round. The worst pick or move of the entire draft: I usually like to have a clear #1 RB as my #1 STUD RB and although RB DeAngelo Williams is capable of producing elite numbers, he'll also still share time with RB Jonathan Stewart, a player I was unable to handcuff to Williams. Time will tell if Williams rebounds coming off that ankle injury. Otherwise, he might not have been the best choice as my first pick. If you had to, with whom would you switch rosters and why? Like Chris Rito said, probably Craig Davis. He has no obvious holes in his starting lineup, so if his team stays healthy and produces what it should, he'll be a tough to beat. =================================================================================== |
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